Portfolio Update

Well, I took a pretty good hit with $HGSI – got out at the open of pre-market, so the loss was big, but not as big as it could have been.  Life goes on.

• Sold $AMAT for 2%
• Sold $FEED for 2%
• Holding $RAD
• Scalped long and short on $HGSI today – made some pretty good cash here - no, didn’t recover the large loss, but in the right direction.
• Scalped $FAZ twice today, both for 1% gains.  worked out pretty well even if the moves were 1% each… adds up.
• Scalped $CHLN for 2%
• Scalped $STSI for 1%
• Scalped $DAN for 2%

Overall a very down day thanks to HGSI, but I can’t complain – I got some of it back  and learned a few things along the way (try not to hold overnight).  I’m still in the game and goals are still intact.

Tags: CHLN, DAN, FAZ, FEED, HGSI, RAD, STSI

Friday Trading Recap

My Friday Recap:

Trades:

$GU b 1.97 s 2.21 12%

$AKRX b 1.06 s 1.14 7.5%

$FAZ b 17.93 s 18.12 1%

$FAS b 6.60 s 6.84 3.6%

MISSED $AERG

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Friday’s penny stock watch list performed fairly well with a few hitting big.

Play of the day: AERG – Kaboom.  Great breakout that moved from $.25 t0 $.32 in less than 30 minutes. Timing was everything.  Volume still up, so worth watching.

• ZIXI – continued strong move with volume on Friday.  Nice intraday move offered a meaningful scalp opportunity.  I might watch to see what happens around $1.20 if it gets back to those levels.
• BEE – I still like the chart. Tried to move out of triangle Friday and I’ll want to be around if it runs.
• PRI still consolidating down with a well formed symmetrical triangle. Watching for breakout up or down.
• SHS – big move Friday – watching to see how it behaves at MA20.
• TEN had a good day, but looks like a lot of resistance at $2.5. A move north of that would be interesting
• CEP still looks bullish, but I think I’ll stay out because I need more volume to fill orders.
• AKRX – beautiful breakout and strong volume – nice climb all day Friday and worth watching next week.
• ICO is still trending up, but needs volume to get through current horizontal resistance.
  

Tags: AERG, AKRX, BEE, CEP, FAS, FAZ, GU, ICO, PRI, SHS, TEN, ZIXI

Monday?

We finally experienced what many have been looking for – a nice bear market rally. What surprised me was that it held strong through the Friday close… I thought the profit taking would be substantial. But, that’s what I get for trying to predict the direction of the market.

Monday’s action is any one’s guess at this point. There are some obvious long setups, as well as some obvious longs that have become overextended. We’re still in a bear market, so being prepared for either side is a prudent idea here.

Note to self – just saw a tweet that OPEC leaving oil production unchanged. Will wait a bit Monday to see how market absorbs this news before entering oil trades.

Watching Monday
Unfortunately, I’ll probably not be around much  – working on some other projects. But, if time permits, here is what I’m eyeballing:

Economic Calendar: I’m really interested to see the Jobless Claims number on Thursday. Only way to make this market run is to instill some confidence that unemployment is not going to continue to grow ( still going to get uglier, in my opinion).

Mon – Industrial Production9:15 AM ET

Tues – Housing Starts8:30 AM ET

Producer Price Index8:30 AM ET

Wed – Consumer Price Index8:30 AM ET

Thurs – Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET

Leading Indicators10:00 AM ET

Philadelphia Fed Survey10:00 AM ET

Fri – Ben Bernanke Speaks12:00 PM ET

Macro View from Gallup:

• bearish – don’t need to draw a trendline to show the highs are lower since January ($71, 68, 66).
• another view from gallup

A few Stocks/ETFs I’m watching:

FAS/FAZ- because I always have an intererest in 3x leveaged funds… but, only if I can sit and scalp.  FAZ is attempting to find support here and I like long if it holds $40. 1 minute. daily . If the market is bullish Monday, I’ll less likely go with FAS, but instead, stick with strength – GS or a short term spec play like - ETFC .  Looking to go long above trendline resistance.

Of course, it is wise to watch the plays mentioned in @tickerville’s brunch. Tickerville Sunday vid.

ABT testing horizontal resistance. sniffin around for breakout.

USO – others have hit on it and I agree – great looking long setup.

ACH triangle. Watching for breakout above or short if runs south.

BKE- Chart doesn’t scream “BUY”, but I do like BKE cuz I shop there. A pullback to $26 and consolidate – I’ll be long.

MR and VNUS look interesting (medical)

NVDA through $10

HNAB – risky penny, but interesting.

Tags: ABT, BKE, FAS, FAZ, HNAB, MR, NVDA, USO, VNUS

Friday Madness, Monday Calm?

It was probably a good thing I wasn’t feeling that great last week because it kept me out of the wild and downright overly emotional securities market.  Yes, for a day trader, Friday was a beautiful thing.  But, if you were not feeling well or didn’t have time to sit in front of your dual monitors – it was too much to handle.

Banks, banks, banks. Citi and Bank of America took all the headlines as prices dropped like an anchor. Everyone is freaking out about nationalization.  Part of me understands the concern, but the other side of me really wants some kind of stability and nationalization might help.

If you want to see how bad it is, just eyeball these two charts: C and BAC .

The Good News?

Friday, the DOW bounced well of its midday low of 7249 to finish at 7365.  Not only did we see some recovery, we also saw an afternoon trend line support carry into the close.  Somewhat bullish afternoon after what was a huge early session collapse.

We’ve finally taken out the DOW lows that everyone has been talking about – July ‘98, Oct. ‘02, and Nov. ‘08.  It seemed inevitable and it finally happened.  Will this psychologically give investors some hope that the worse is finally over?  Well, maybe.  At least in the short term.  It seems clear that Friday was an emotional, irrational push to take out the previous lows and now we can sit and relax… maybe even see a small bull rally.  Don’t get me wrong, we’re very much in a bear market and the two numbers I’m looking for (unemployment and consumer confidence) must improve before we can truly feel confident that brighter days are around the corner.

So, what now?

This week I will likely focus my attention on trading financials, commodities and currency.  My gut tells me we’ll see a rally up in financials accompanied by a rally down in commodities – both likely short term moves. I’ll keep an eye on C, BAC, WFC, and my favorite FAS/FAZ (3x leveraged ETFs).

Tags: BAC, C, FAS, FAZ, WFC

FAStastic?

If you’re like me, FAS and FAZ have been a lot of fun to day trade, but miserable for swing trading.   The timing on this one is very difficult due to the current political environment.
That being told, I honestly have no idea where FAS and FAZ are going in the short term.  However, there is a way to play it.  First, I wouldn’t hold either one of these overnight (yes, I’m holding over night right now – bad me). These ETFs are far too volatile.  Second, day trade on the EMA4 crossover north of EMA13 with opening bollinger bands – that’s how I play it intraday.  I exit the moment EMA4 starts looking back down at EMA13.  That’s it.

FAS Chart – looks like we’re at horizontal resistance. If we move through, we could run to $15, but I doubt higher.

Tags: FAS, FAZ